If these groups are representative of this demographic at large, it will be a tall task to counter the disillusionment many feel due to a pattern of over-promising and under-delivering. Americans remain overwhelmingly against requiring individuals to purchase health insurance, but they divide in half about the health care law that President Obama signed in 2010, according to the latest United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll. The recent national Reason-Rupe poll of 1200 adults finds 65 percent of Americans are open to changing Medicare for those under 55 years old into a program that gives individuals a credit to purchase a private insurance plan. Yet his success has not erased old doubts or stereotypes about his party on these issues. A new survey finds signs of public uneasiness with the mixing of religion and politics. Supreme Court should throw out either the individual mandate in the federal health care law or the law in its entirety, signaling the depth of public disagreement with that element of the Affordable Care Act. At a time of rising gas prices, the public's energy priorities have changed. This year's tumultuous Republican presidential race has underscored the dominance of whites, especially older white voters, in the GOP.
The number of people who say there has been too much religious talk by political leaders stands at an all-time high since the Pew Research Center began asking the question more than a decade ago. Mitt Romney's resounding win in the Illinois primary Tuesday demonstrated his solidifying hold on the GOP's upscale managerial wing, and deepened the question of whether rival Rick Santorum can appeal to a broad enough segment of Republican voters to truly challenge the front-runner's lead for the nomination. An improved sense that he understands voters' problems boosted Mitt Romney to victory in the Illinois primary, as did a less religiously focused, less strongly conservative electorate than he's faced in other contests, especially to the south. More Americans continue to view the development of alternative energy sources as a higher priority than the increased production of oil, coal and natural gas, but the gap has narrowed considerably over the past year. The power of campaigns to create and motivate new swing voters dovetails with the political strategy of driving polarization. Despite what you might have learned in Economics 101, people aren't always selfish. When people feel that a group they value -- be it racial, religious, regional or ideological -- is under attack, they rally to its defense, even at some cost to themselves. In a trend with important implications for the presidential election, the latest Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor poll released today shows President Obama's strongest groups in the electorate expressing the most optimism about the trajectory of the economy. Republican voters who prefer Newt Gingrich for the party's 2012 presidential nomination are as likely to name Mitt Romney as their second choice as they are to name Rick Santorum, suggesting the race would not tilt in Santorum's favor if Gingrich dropped out. Faith has emerged as a significant fault line in the Republican race for president, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, which shows that Rick Santorum's supporters seek a much stronger role for religion in American politics than do voters who support rival Mitt Romney. After Tuesday's contests in Alabama and Mississippi, exit polls have been conducted in 16 states that have held Republican primaries or caucuses. Opinions are far less positive, however, about two other major initiatives to bolster the economy -- the 2008 bank bailout and the 2009 stimulus plan. President Barack Obama is enjoying a mini-renaissance in California.
But a new research paper points to another element of such bias: In 2008, poll respondents were more likely to say they would vote for Obama if the person conducting the interview was African-American. A 21-nation Pew Global Attitudes survey finds widespread opposition to Iran obtaining nuclear weapons.
Public acceptance of gay/lesbian relations as morally acceptable grew slowly but steadily from 38% in 2002 to 56% in 2011 and is now holding at the majority level. Between now and November 6, the people will ask themselves whether President Obama's stewardship of the economy has met their hopes -- a judgment that will depend heavily on the performance of the economy over the next six months.
These voters self-identified as Independents, voted for President Obama in 2008, but are undecided on the generic presidential ballot today. Our own political forecasting model, based on hundreds of elections around the world, indicates that Obama has about an 85% probability of winning reelection and re-taking the White House. While Obama's advantage is not statistically significant, it is the largest he has had over Romney in Gallup polling to date. Former senator Rick Santorum on Sunday dismissed recent polls showing his support collapsing in his home state of Pennsylvania, taking aim at the nonpartisan pollster behind the surveys as "a Democratic hack." In an appearance on "Fox News Sunday," Santorum was asked about a late-March Franklin & Marshall poll. [From The Polling Report archives: The final Franklin & Marshall 1996 Senate poll, conducted Oct. leading Rick Santorum 53% to 38%, with 9% undecided.
Yes, there is a chance that Obama might falter, but it is a small one and the Republican candidate has little bearing on it. Casey defeated Santorum 59% to 41%.]President Obama has opened the first significant lead of the 2012 campaign in the nation's dozen top battleground states, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, boosted by a huge shift of women to his side. We don't need to stop studying and debating voter demographics, but we should be smarter about how we do it. Pew Research Center surveys in recent years have covered the opinions of blacks and whites on these and other issues. About half of Americans, 52%, say the effects of global warming have already begun to happen, consistent with views since 2009.
If the people decide that the president has done well enough, he will be reelected, whatever Mitt Romney says or does. One casualty of the sweeping budget bill that passed the House on Thursday was an annual survey conducted by the Census Bureau, a rich source of data that social researchers say is critical to modern demography. One potential complication for President Obama's embrace of gay marriage is that minority voters at the core of the modern Democratic electoral coalition have usually resisted the idea more than whites.
But that gap is narrowing-driven mostly by the same process of shifting generational attitudes evident among whites. Presumptive Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney holds a nearly 50-point lead over President Barack Obama (68 percent vs.
For both reasons, journalists should keep their eye on the big picture. In all, the most predictable message of 2012 is likely to be that after a surge toward the Republicans following the 9/11 terrorist attacks, a tide of disillusionment with President Bush that lifted the Democrats in 20, and a sharp snap back toward the GOP in 2010, America has reverted to being a 50-50 nation. The growing popularity of e-books and the adoption of specialized e-book reading devices are documented in a series of new nationally representative surveys by the Pew Research Center's Internet & American Life Project that look at the public's general reading habits, their consumption of print books, e-books and audiobooks, and their attitudes about the changing ways that books are made available to the public. A close look at the last month of the campaign reveals the painful contours of the Santorum slide.